China’s evaporated, condensed milk market to reach US$282M by 2035

CHINA – China’s evaporated and condensed milk market is set to experience steady growth over the next decade, driven by rising consumer demand. 

According to a report by IndexBox, the market is projected to reach a volume of 132,000 tons and a value of US$282 million by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 0.2% in volume and 1.7% in value from 2024 to 2035. 

In 2024, the market saw a modest recovery, with consumption rising by 1.2% to 129,000 tons after two years of decline. 

The market value remained stable at US$234 million, highlighting a consistent demand despite economic fluctuations. 

Over the past decade, consumption has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1%, peaking at 149,000 tons in 2022. 

“The steady demand for evaporated and condensed milk reflects its versatility in cooking and baking, especially in urban areas,” said Li Wei, a dairy industry analyst based in Shanghai.

Production in China has remained relatively flat, with 113,000 tons produced in 2024, nearly unchanged from the previous year. 

The industry faced challenges in recent years, with production peaking at 116,000 tons in 2021. Despite this, the value of production surged to US$252 million in 2024, boosted by higher export prices. 

Companies like Mengniu Dairy and Yili Group continue to dominate the domestic market, leveraging strong distribution networks to meet consumer needs.

Imports also played a significant role, with China importing 19,000 tons in 2024, a 13% increase from 2023. 

This growth reflects reliance on foreign suppliers like Fonterra and Nestlé to supplement domestic supply. 

“Imported products are often preferred for their quality and brand reputation,” noted Zhang Mei, a purchasing manager at a major Beijing supermarket chain. 

However, imports have not returned to their 2021 peak of 35,000 tons, indicating a gradual shift toward local production.

The market’s growth is driven by increasing use in food processing, particularly in desserts and beverages, as well as rising consumer preference for shelf-stable dairy products. 

Urbanization and changing lifestyles have further fueled demand, with evaporated and condensed milk becoming staples in both home kitchens and commercial settings. 

Despite a slight slowdown in market performance, the long-term outlook remains positive, supported by China’s expanding middle class and growing dairy consumption. 

Industry experts anticipate that innovations in product offerings, such as low-sugar and organic variants, will further boost market growth in the coming years.

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