Africa’s skim milk market to reach US$5.7B by 2035 – Index box

AFRICA – According to IndexBox, the market for skim milk in Africa is on the rise, driven by growing demand, forecasted to reach 7.2M tons with a value of US$5.7B by 2035.

Driven by increasing demand for skim milk in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.2M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $5.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, the amount of skim milk consumed in Africa reduced modestly to 6.6M tons, approximately reflecting 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 6.8M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Tanzania (1.2M tons), Egypt (1M tons) and Morocco (899K tons), together comprising 48% of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Tanzania (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, purchases abroad of skim milk was finally on the rise to reach 108K tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend.

Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 26%. The volume of import peaked at 119K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2024, after six years of growth, there was decline in shipments abroad of skim milk, when their volume decreased by -4.7% to 73K tons. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern.

The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 52%. The volume of export peaked at 77K tons in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

In 2024, South Africa (40K tons) represented the largest exporter of skim milk, comprising 55% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Egypt (27K tons) and Uganda (5K tons), together comprising a 43% share of total exports.

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