Asia fuels global milk production growth – FAO reports

ASIA – According to the latest biannual report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 1% increase in global milk production is expected in 2025, reaching 992.7 million tonnes, the growth driven by Asia.

The report identifies Asia as the primary driver of this growth, with India, Bangladesh and Pakistan leading the way.

According to the FAO, these countries are expanding their milk production capacities due to larger herd sizes and improved productivity per animal.

These countries are expected to see continued herd expansion and gradual improvements in productivity, more than compensating for a projected decline in China, where falling farmgate prices and sustained cost pressures are dampening output growth.

In the Americas, substantial production gains are anticipated in Brazil and Mexico, alongside a recovery in Argentina and the United States, contributing to a broader regional rebound.

In contrast, Europe and Oceania are expected to see stable production levels, with minor increases amid divergent national trends.

Africa, however, is likely to witness a slight decline, as rising input costs and conflict-related disruptions in some regions hinder production.

On the trade front, global dairy trade, measured in milk equivalent, is forecast to contract by 0.8% in 2025.

While a rebound in Chinese imports – driven by growing demand from the food industry and a lower domestic production outlook – may offer some support, this is unlikely to fully offset anticipated import declines in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Near East, where regional production is improving.

Among exporters, declining shipments from the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are expected to be partially offset by higher exports from New Zealand and Uruguay.

The FAO also warns that uncertainty in global trade policy remains a key factor to monitor in the coming months, given its potential impact on market dynamics.

Additionally, the International Dairy Federation (IDF) in its World Dairy Situation 2024 report, released in March 2025, stated that the Asian market has firmly established itself as a formidable force in the global dairy industry, with China and India at the forefront.

The two countries collectively account for a staggering 50% of the world’s milk consumption, significantly impacting global dairy dynamics.

It expected a 2.1% increase in annual milk production, reaching a remarkable 964 million tons. This surge is predominantly driven by China and India, which have bolstered their positions as two of the top five producers of cow’s milk globally, buoyed by robust domestic demand.

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