Milk production projected to drop 4% by 2050 – Scientist report

ISRAEL – A study from Israel-based universities, including Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Chicago, has reported that by 2050, the average daily milk production could be reduced by 4% due to worsening heat stress.

Using temperature projections for 2050, the report indicates that by mid-century, average daily milk production could decrease by 4% due to worsening heat stress.

The report stated that with just one hour of wet-bulb temperature above 26 °C, a cow’s daily milk production can be reduced by 0.5%. Exposure to high temperatures also has a prolonged effect, with milk production still lower than typical levels up to 10 days after the initial hot day.

The damaging effects of heat stress on dairy farms will be particularly severe in South Asia, which is expected to account for more than half of global milk production growth over the coming decade.

As fossil fuel burning continues to accelerate, the region is set to become increasingly vulnerable to debilitating heatwaves, further exacerbating the impact on milk yields.

The researchers stated that this drop would be felt particularly by the 150 million households dependent on milk production globally.

Drawing on records from more than 130,000 cows over 12 years, the researchers reported that extreme heat reduces dairy cows’ ability to produce milk by approximately 10%.

Cattle are responsible for approximately one-third of human-caused methane emissions, which, like carbon dioxide, contribute to global warming.

Farmers are already implementing adaptation strategies, not least in Israel, the location of the study, where almost all farms employ some form of technology to reduce heat stress. Adaptation methods include ensuring cows have access to shade, as well as cooling cattle directly through ventilation or the use of sprinklers.

However, the researchers found that on days that exceeded 24 °C, these cooling strategies were only able to inhibit 40% of the impact of extreme heat on dairy production.

Claire Palandri, the lead author of the study published in the journal Science Advances, has urged policymakers to explore additional strategies to not only cool cows but also reduce stressors, such as confinement and calf separation. Stressors make cows more sensitive to heat and less resilient.

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