Rabobank highlights effects of climate change in EU

EUROPE – A study by Rabobank warns that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are reshaping Europe’s traditional dairy production environment, creating growing challenges for farmers, processors and the wider milk supply chain.

The research highlights how regions historically characterised by favourable grassland conditions and limited exposure to extreme heat could face increasing pressure on animal welfare, milk yields and production reliability.

Although the changes are not expected to displace Europe’s major milk-producing regions, they could weaken their competitiveness as climate-related production constraints become more pronounced.

According to the study, the impact of rising temperatures will vary considerably across European dairy-producing regions, depending on local warming patterns and differences in herd composition.

Northern Italy, southern Germany, France and Spain are among the major dairy-producing areas expected to experience a marked increase in potential heat-related milk losses.

These regions could face growing difficulties in maintaining consistent milk production as higher temperatures affect cattle comfort, feed intake and overall productivity.

The study estimates that annual heat-related milk losses across the European regions assessed could rise to 12.2 million metric tonnes around 2050, compared with approximately 4.5 million metric tonnes under current climatic conditions.

For dairy processors, the consequences could extend beyond reduced raw milk availability.

Lower milk collection volumes could result in underutilisation of processing facilities, increasing operational costs and putting additional pressure on the competitiveness of affected dairy businesses.

The changing climatic conditions could therefore influence not only farm-level productivity but also the economics of milk procurement, processing and distribution.

Northern European Regions Retain Relative Production Advantages

While several major European dairy regions face increasing climate-related risks, Atlantic and northern European production areas are expected to retain a relative climatic advantage.

The study identifies southern Ireland as an example of a region likely to experience comparatively limited additional production losses.

With annual milk production of approximately 6.2 million metric tonnes, southern Ireland represents the third-largest production base in the table assessed by the researchers.

The region is expected to experience an additional future milk production loss of only 0.3% of total output, highlighting the differences in climate exposure across Europe’s dairy-producing geography.

These regional variations could influence the relative competitiveness of dairy production areas over the coming decades, particularly as processors assess sourcing strategies and the long-term reliability of milk supplies.

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